Hospitality Investing News - Central States (KS,NE) March 2024

The Latest in the Central States (KS,NE) Hospitality Market

Higher borrowing costs tend to dampen commercial property prices directly by making investments in the sector more expensive, but also indirectly by slowing economic activity and reducing the demand for such properties. Nevertheless, the sharp decline in prices during the current US monetary policy tightening cycle is striking. Contrary to the current policy cycle, commercial property prices remained generally stable or saw milder losses during past Fed rate hikes. Some of the earlier rate hikes, though, such as in 2004-06, were subsequently followed by a recession during which commercial property prices recorded notable declines as demand fell. Part of this divergence in price behavior between the recent and past monetary policy tightening cycles may be attributed to the steep pace of monetary policy tightening this time around, a factor that has contributed to the sharp increase in mortgage rates and commercial mortgage-backed securities spreads. It has also notably slowed private equity fundraising—an important source of financing for the sector in recent years, Prospects for the sector remain challenging, even as Fed officials signal interest rate cuts this year and investors grow more optimistic about a soft landing for the economy. Financial intermediaries and investors with a significant exposure to commercial real estate face heightened asset quality risks. Smaller and regional US banks are particularly vulnerable as they are almost five times more exposed to the sector than larger banks. The risks posed by the commercial property sector are also relevant for other regions, for example, in Europe, as many of the same factors are at play as in the US.